Commentary

Equity Markets: What to Expect When You’re Electing

MARCH 2024 - Select Dividend


EXPECT VOLATILITY TO RISE

Since 1950, volatility heading into the Presidential election has been elevated relative to the median annual trend. However, short term volatility tends to fall in the 4th quarter and remain relatively low during the year after. 

If the market behaves similarly to the long-term trend, we expect strong positive performance and lower vol after the election.

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The S&P 500 was up most election years, driven greatly by post-election rallies

Since 1929, the SPX was up 75% of presidential election years, compared to the total average of 65%. Since 1950, it was up 83% of election years, maintaining a +10% lead over the relative long-term average.

However, ~25% of the average annual election year performance occurred after the November election, aka the stub period. The SPX was up in January, and we think there is a good case to expect positive returns in 2024.

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*Election year performance ends at election day and 1st year new term performance begins the day after election day. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An index is unmanaged and unavailable for direct investment.Source: Bloomberg, S&P Dow Jones Indices as of 3/21/24.

 

ABOUT THE ADVISORY RESEARCH GLOBAL SELECT DIVIDEND STRATEGY

Global Select Dividend strategy (“GSD”) is a concentrated, low-turnover, high active share equity strategy. GSD seeks to offer current income and income growth, as well as capital appreciation with less risk than the broader equity market.

  • Inception Date: 12/31/2010
  • Accessibility: SMA
  • Minimum Investment: $250,000
  • Number of Holdings: 25-35

 

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