Commentary / Select Dividend

If Volatility Rises, Dividend Growth Should Outperform

If Volatility Rises, Dividend Growth Should Outperform

MARCH 2024 - Select Dividend If there is one thing markets dislike, it is uncertainty There has been growing certainty that 1) inflation is easing and 2) as a result, the Fed will cut rates somewhat aggressively later in 2024. Volatility markets have reflected this consensus, with the …

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Equity Markets: What to Expect When You’re Electing

Equity Markets: What to Expect When You’re Electing

MARCH 2024 - Select Dividend EXPECT VOLATILITY TO RISE Since 1950, volatility heading into the Presidential election has been elevated relative to the median annual trend. However, short term volatility tends to fall in the 4th quarter and remain relatively low during the year after. …

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Why Money Market Liquidity Might be a 2025 Story

Why Money Market Liquidity Might be a 2025 Story

JANUARY 2024 Equities benefit when rates fall, and liquidity exits the money market On a calendar year basis, the S&P 500 performed well during years after the end of a Federal Reserve tightening cycle when money market (“MM”) flows were negative by at least 7%. Considering 2023 s …

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History suggests the post-pause rally is just beginning

History suggests the post-pause rally is just beginning

NOVEMBER 2023 Real rates are restrictive by many measures Real interest rates account for inflation and are often considered restrictive at levels > zero. With the real Fed Funds rate* and yields on inflation protected bonds (TIPS) positive and rising, real rates are indeed restric …

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Simplify your Allocation

Simplify your Allocation

September 2023 A single global equity portfolio may be all the exposure you need 30 years ago, equities were a complicated asset class, but today, there is a much wider opportunity set of more complex and illiquid alternatives. In that case, simplifying your equity allocation to a sin …

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Is your Dividend Manager a Value Trap?

Is your Dividend Manager a Value Trap?

DECEMBER 2023 TOO MANY MANAGERS CHASE YIELD OVER GROWTH The S&P 500 closed 2023 up 26.3%, but many dividend managers missed the rally. The average U.S. dividend strategy returned 11.5% (net) over the same period, and strategies with 2.5%+ dividend yields (more than half of the uni …

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