Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #4 The Fed is Not Captured

Dissent is the new black.

Kevin Hassett gets the nod as the next Federal Reserve Chair but will be unable to muscle the Fed Funds rate lower as the FOMC returns to the more chaotic, pre-Greenspan decision making process. Fed independence is maintained, though at the cost of higher interest-rate volatility driven by more public dissents and policy pivots than in recent Fed-watching memory. A lack of consensus is likely to make communications from the Fed more difficult to decipher and policy rate outcomes harder to predict.

Source: Dario Perkins, GLOBALDATA TS Lombard, "The BoE-fication of the Fed". 12/1/2025. Daniel L. Thornton and David C. Wheelock, FOMC Dissent Data Appendix to "Making Sense of Dissents: A History of FOMC Dissents." Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2014 Vol. 96, No. 3. Data updated as of 10/31/2025.

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