Commentary

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #4 The Fed is Not Captured

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 21, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #4 The Fed is Not Captured

Dissent is the new black. Kevin Hassett gets the nod as the next Federal Reserve Chair but will be unable to muscle the Fed Funds rate lower as the FOMC returns to the more chaotic, pre-Greenspan decision making process. Fed independence is maintained, though at the cost of higher int …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #5 Europe Outperforms U.S. Again

by Michael Valentinas on January 19, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #5 Europe Outperforms U.S. Again

" \n European equities put up another strong year vs. the U.S. \n The iShares Europe ETF (+36.6%) more than doubled the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (+17.8%) in 2025, driven by far broader sector participation — 9 of 11 European sectors outpaced the United States vs. just 3 in the U.S. \n Str …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend Q4 2025 Investor Letter

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 14, 2026

Select Dividend Q4 2025 Investor Letter

2025 in Review: The "chattering class" spent much of 2025 debating the terminal rate of inflation, the softening labor market, and when (not if) the AI bubble would pop. We remained focused on our disciplined investment process – objectivity and breadth, cash flows over earnings, accr …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #3 Private Market Bubble

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 08, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #3 Private Market Bubble

Post-COVID private capital is still working its way into the market. Relative to public markets, private markets tend to be very expensive sources of return, offering limited liquidity and extended lockups. Yet, private markets have raised > $9T since 2020 while delivering middling …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #2 No AI Bubble

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 07, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #2 No AI Bubble

Underperformers may be quick to cry “AI bubble” when they missed the boat. A record 75% of global large cap equity strategies trailed the MSCI ACWI (net) YTD through Oct-25. While cynical, we think that when a lot of managers aren't doing well, they look to blame somebody else, and in …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #1 Global Reacceleration

by Michael Valentinas on January 05, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #1 Global Reacceleration

Reaccelerating global economic growth could fuel inflation in 2026. The Chinese economy is likely to benefit in 2026 from fiscal support while a PBoC put should help offset the property drag and lift growth. German fiscal stimulus is expected to boost spending and B2B flows in Q1, and …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

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