Commentary

Select Dividend Q4 2025 Investor Letter

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 08, 2026

2025 in Review: The "chattering class" spent much of 2025 debating the terminal rate of inflation, the softening labor market, and when (not if) the AI bubble would pop. We remained focused on our disciplined investment process – objectivity and breadth, cash flows over earnings, accr …

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Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #3 Private Market Bubble

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 08, 2026

Post-COVID private capital is still working its way into the market. Relative to public markets, private markets tend to be very expensive sources of return, offering limited liquidity and extended lockups. Yet, private markets have raised > $9T since 2020 while delivering middling …

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Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #2 No AI Bubble

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 07, 2026

Underperformers may be quick to cry “AI bubble” when they missed the boat. A record 75% of global large cap equity strategies trailed the MSCI ACWI (net) YTD through Oct-25. While cynical, we think that when a lot of managers aren't doing well, they look to blame somebody else, and in …

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Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #1 Global Reacceleration

by Michael Valentinas on January 05, 2026

Reaccelerating global economic growth could fuel inflation in 2026. The Chinese economy is likely to benefit in 2026 from fiscal support while a PBoC put should help offset the property drag and lift growth. German fiscal stimulus is expected to boost spending and B2B flows in Q1, and …

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