Commentary / Select Dividend

Select Dividend Q4 2025 Investor Letter

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 08, 2026

Select Dividend Q4 2025 Investor Letter

2025 in Review: The "chattering class" spent much of 2025 debating the terminal rate of inflation, the softening labor market, and when (not if) the AI bubble would pop. We remained focused on our disciplined investment process – objectivity and breadth, cash flows over earnings, accr …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #3 Private Market Bubble

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 08, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #3 Private Market Bubble

Post-COVID private capital is still working its way into the market. Relative to public markets, private markets tend to be very expensive sources of return, offering limited liquidity and extended lockups. Yet, private markets have raised > $9T since 2020 while delivering middling …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #2 No AI Bubble

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on January 07, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #2 No AI Bubble

Underperformers may be quick to cry “AI bubble” when they missed the boat. A record 75% of global large cap equity strategies trailed the MSCI ACWI (net) YTD through Oct-25. While cynical, we think that when a lot of managers aren't doing well, they look to blame somebody else, and in …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #1 Global Reacceleration

by Michael Valentinas on January 05, 2026

Select Dividend '10 Surprises for 2026': #1 Global Reacceleration

Reaccelerating global economic growth could fuel inflation in 2026. The Chinese economy is likely to benefit in 2026 from fiscal support while a PBoC put should help offset the property drag and lift growth. German fiscal stimulus is expected to boost spending and B2B flows in Q1, and …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend  '10 Surprises for 2026'

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on December 18, 2025

Select Dividend  '10 Surprises for 2026'

In homage to the late Byron Wien -- a well-known investment strategist at Morgan Stanley and later Blackstone -- our ‘10 Surprises for 2026’ list contains events whereby the market looks to be pricing in a less than 1:3 probability of occurrence but we believe the odds are 50% or high …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend Q3 2025 Investor Letter

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on October 10, 2025

Select Dividend Q3 2025 Investor Letter

Inflection NOT Stagflation The chattering class reflexively answers “What Is Stagflation?” to the Jeopardy answer that is: “An economic scenario of weakening labor market but strengthening inflation”. Now, employment and inflation are moving in opposite directions signaling an economy …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Why your global allocation should be an active dividend strategy.

by Michael Valentinas on September 26, 2025

Why your global allocation should be an active dividend strategy.

International markets simply have more dividend paying stocks than the U.S. Major international equity aggregates, as compared to those in the U.S., tend to be larger by count with a greater relative composition of stocks with (high) dividend yields. E.g., 35% of the S&P 500 ETF e …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Could Policy Deregulation and Tariffs Rewire the U.S. Debt Path?

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on July 23, 2025

Could Policy Deregulation and Tariffs Rewire the U.S. Debt Path?

Regulations mostly decreased under Republican presidents in the modern era. History suggests that Republican administrations often pursue deregulation, and this can influence productivity over time. For example, the Reagan administration implemented broad deregulation across multiple …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Deficit Spending Helped Juice U.S. Equities. Will it Continue?

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on July 23, 2025

Deficit Spending Helped Juice U.S. Equities. Will it Continue?

Federal deficit spending was a likely catalyst for U.S. equity markets. We think federal deficit spending has played a significant role in supporting U.S. equities over the past 15 years. Prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), federal deficits typically averaged around 2.3% of GD …

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Strategies: Select Dividend

Select Dividend Q2 2025 Investor Letter

by Adam Steffanus, CFA on July 08, 2025

Select Dividend Q2 2025 Investor Letter

Running from one side of the ship to the other Heading into 2025, investors were fairly blasé about President Donald Trump’s tariff threats assuming they were largely a negotiating ploy. We took the president at his word and assumed tariffs would be higher than what most investors exp …

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Strategies: Select Dividend
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